Hell Has Frozen Over

Really I’m writing this post for just one reason; I don’t understand how this is happening.

In a season where last year’s CY Young award winners David Price and RA Dickey have ERA’s of 6.25 and 5.36 respectively and WHIPs of 1.48 and 1.31, Patrick Corbin and Kevin Slowey are setting the world on fire.

So far Corbin has a mind bottling stat line of 1.80/1.08/32K and 6 quality starts. Slowey on the hand has an even more impressive 1.81/0.94/36K and 5 quality starts. WHAT?!

(No I didn’t accidentally transpose Slowey and Corbin’s names with Price and Dickey.)

So I have to find out how this is happening. So of course I went to the only source I use whenever I want to know anything; baseball reference. I’m being serious, if I need a weather update or anything I just hit up baseball reference, doesn’t always help but now I randomly know that Mike Stanley’s career OPS is .827.

But back to the task at hand, finding out how the hell Corbin and Slowey are doing this.

Corbin is in his second year and following up on a 2012 campaign where he boasted a 4-8 record with a 4.54 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. He averaged a 7.2 K/9 rate, a 2.1 BB/9 rate, a 9.8 Hits/9 rate and a 1.2 HR/9 rate. In case you were wondering that is nowhere near being remotely good. His ERA last year ranked 223 in the National League (that includes players that don’t qualify based on innings pitched but only because Corbin himself didn’t qualify.) His WHIP ranked 117, Hits/9 ranked 254; basically he was awful soaked in horrendous.

In 2013 Corbin so far is 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. So how’s he doing it? First the WHIP, his walk rate is up slightly to 2.3 from 2.1 per 9 innings, and his strikeout rate has stayed on par at 7.2 per 9 innings. Where he has improved is in giving up 2.4 hits less per 9 innings at 7.4 Hits/9. The result? Fewer runs being scored on singles and doubles. His HR rate has also dropped drastically from 1.2 to 0.5. The result? Well if I need me to spell it out, it’s less runs scored on HR’s. In 2012 Corbin gave up 14 homeruns, 4 of which had 1 runner of base and 2 of the 14 homeruns had 2 base runners on. Those resulted in 20 runs scored. If we were extrapolate his current HR rate over the same number of innings pitched he’s on pace to only allow 5 HRs. He also averaged 0.5 runs per hit last year and is only averaging 0.24 runs per hit so far this year.

Again if we extrapolate that rate out to match the number of hits he gave up last year it would equal 28 runs, plus the 5 HRs would give me 33 runs allowed over an assumed 107 innings. The result? An ERA of 2.78.

So in case I lost you in the shuffle of all the numbers, Corbin is doing this because he’s on pace to more than halve his HRs and hits given up.

Do I think this start is fluky? Yes and no. He’s only in his second year, so is it possible that last year was just the result of him being a rookie and this is who Corbin really is? Sure it is. I think however, he’s probably something in between the two extremes. He still needs to lower his hit rate and his walk rate even more to truly sustain this level of production.

Phew! Now on to Slowey…I’m writing this in real time, so part of me thinks that I’ll reach the same conclusion for Slowey that I did for Corbin.

Slowey spent the first 5 years of his career in the American League, and was nothing short of awful. His career low in ERA and WHIP before the 2013 season was 3.99/1.20. Slowey is also a pitcher that has given up far too many Hits/9 (11.1, 9.0, 11.2, 9.9, and 11.8). He’s also given up far too many HRs/9 (2.2, 1.2, 1.5, 1.2, and 1.5). Where’s he’s had success in the past (if you can really count anything he’s done in the past as successful) is in his walk rate. While he let the ball leave the park far too often, and he let too many batters get on base through hits, he wasn’t giving away any free passes (although when you’re allowing 11 hits per 9 innings, some might say every time he’s on the mound it counts as a free pass.)

The difference in Slowey this year lies in a few areas, all of which are affected by the fact that he is now pitching in a lesser league, and in a better pitchers park. He’s cut his HR rate by more than half, is now giving up less than 7 hits per 9 innings, and is averaging the second highest strikeout rate of his career at 7.3 per 9 innings.

Will this hold up? Of course not! He’s in the sixth year of his career; unlike Corbin he’s not a young pitcher who doesn’t have an established body of work. I do think, this will be a career year for Slowey, because of the ball park and the league, but don’t be surprised if his ERA/WHIP and peripheral statistics all climb drastically as the year continues. If he ends the year with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, I wouldn’t be shocked, but it would a great season, relative to what he’s produced in his career to date.

Conclusion? Don’t let guys get on base and don’t give up HRs and you’ll put up amazing numbers. Sustain that over an entire year and you’ll be a CY Young Award candidate. Sustain that over the majority of a career and you’ll go down as one of the greats. Do it randomly over an unbelievably small sample size and you’ll help out my fantasy team, and then you’ll get dropped by the All-Star break.

You’re move Corbin, you’re move Slowey.

P.S. If you’re a starting pitcher you probably don’t want your name to be Slow-ey, or Homer Bailey…

Opening Week – A Look Back At The Blue Jays

The Offseason Champion Toronto Blue Jays have started the season slowly, behind silent bats and whimpering pitchers. So far they have compiled a lowly 2-4 record losing both series’ to the Cleveland Indians and the Boston Red Sox.

R.A. Dickey gave up a career high 24 homeruns last year in New York’s cavernous Citi Field and with the Skydome (yup I’m still calling the Skydome) barely exceeding depths of the most average minor league stadiums (clearly I’m being sarcastic…kind of) I foresee that number increasing by quite a bit. Something Dickey is probably expecting as well judging by the surprised and confused look on his face when a seemingly routine fly out to right field by Asdrubal Cabrera ended up as a two-run homerun at the Blue Jays home opener on Opening Day. The star-studded Blue Jay lineup was also shutdown by Cleveland’s Masterson as Melky Cabrera scored the lone run as Adam Lind grounded into a double play with the bases loaded and no outs.

The next day Michael Brantley continued to terrorize Blue Jay pitching going 4 for 5 while no one else on either team had more than 1 hit (excluding Carlos Santana who went 2 for 5.) Down 2-1 in the bottom of the 9^th inning, Jose Bautista crushed a homerun 393 feet tying the game and breathing life into the Skydome. The crowd was abuzz, cheering on the new look Blue Jays, hope still running high early in the season, then stupid Mark Reynolds stepped up to the plate crushed our collective souls with one swing of the bat. Reynolds sent the ball soaring at the top of the 11^th inning winning the game and destroying the ball 457 feet to left center field.

Morrow’s six inning, one run, eight strikeout performance was all for not.

Game three – the bats finally come alive! For both teams…

With a final score of 10-8 Blue Jays, neither pitching staff did anything worth noting, although the Indians three pitchers somehow managed to combine for 2 strikeouts.

Jose Bautista homered sending the ball 430 feet; Encarnacion homered (365 feet); Rasmus launched the ball 411 feet and JP Arencibia hit two homeruns for a combined 831 feet. Carlos Santana and Mark Reynolds also added solo homeruns for the Indians for a combined 861 feet. (The Skydome walls aren’t that far back; stop hitting those balls so damn hard!)

With Joey Bats out with an ankle injury the Blue Jays took on the Boston Red Sox in a three game series at home. Josh Johnson took the mound in the AL East rivals first matchup of the season, pitching 6 innings, giving up 4 runs (3 earned) on 9 hits and averaged a strikeout an inning. Jose Reyes had his best game as a Blue Jay as he brought Toronto with one run in the bottom of the 9^th batting in a run then tied the game in the bottom of the 7^th with a 423 foot homerun to right field. It was however, wasted as Esmil Rogers gave up the eventual game winning run at the top of the 8^th inning and Jeffress gave up the insurance run at the top of the 9^th.

Toronto came back strong in the second game as John Lackey hurt his throwing arm in the 5^th inning and J.A. Happ (Romero’s replacement) one hit the potent Red Sox batters through 5.1 innings, resulting in a 5-0 shutout, tallying 6 strikeouts. Arencibia homered for the 3^rd time this year and Rasmus for the second as he smashed the ball an appalling 468 feet.

The Blue Jay lineup could and should have done more damage as they left 6 runners stranded.

Game three – The Boston Red Sox returned the favor, winning the series 3 games to 2 by a score of 13-0 in the final game.

Dickey lost for the second time this year, throwing 100 pitches through 4.2 innings. He gave up 8 runs on 10 hits. Dave Bush didn’t perform any better giving up 5 runs on 5 hits in 3 innings. Will Middlebrooks homered three times; once off of R.A. Dickey and twice off of Dave Bush.

There isn’t much to say here, other than Dickey might have to get used to this, if he can’t figure out ways to adjust and this late into this career I don’t see how he can.

This hasn’t been the start Blue Jays fans were hoping for, but it is the start we got. Thankfully, it is only one week and 6 games. This lineup is talented and the pitching staff is above average at the least, with some young live arms in the bullpen.

Once the Blue Jays figure out a way to get settled and find consistency in their play they will be a dangerous matchup for any team in the league, and hopefully Dickey will fare better on the road in more forgiving ballparks. At the very least the front office is actually trying to win and that’s better than being a Pirates, Marlins or Astros fan.

Opening Week – A Look Back At The Tigers

Opening week has come and gone and Adam Jones is hitting .538, Michael Morse and Justin Upton have hit 5 homeruns each (B.J. and Justin also had a great moment where B.J. tied the game against Cubs with a homerun in the bottom of the 9^th and then Justin won it with a walk off homerun.) Chris Davis is on pace to have 459 RBI, Yu Darvish is averaging 10 strikeouts a start, Clayton Kershaw will never give up a run again and Justin Verlander signed a $180 million extension and now he sucks.

Okay so I might be exaggerating slightly.

One week and six games later, the Tigers are 3-3 due to some impressive performances by Prince Fielder and some not so impressive performances by Justin Verlander.

The Tigers lost the first series to Minnesota in a recreation of the same-old, same-old when the bullpen couldn’t hold onto a lead or keep the game in reach for the offense. Phil Coke blew a one run lead in the second game of the season giving up a two run double to Eduardo Escobar in the bottom of the ninth inning and Villarreal gave up 5 runs in the bottom of the 8^th inning of the third game of season allowing the Twins to put a close 3-2 game out of reach.

Their sole win came on opening day, when the offense struggled, but Cabrera, Prince, Jhonny and Austin Jackson managed to score four runs for the close 4-2 win and Justin Verlander pitched an inconsistent five scoreless innings.

JV’s pitch count climbed to 91 in five short innings where he walked only 2 batters and managed seven strikeouts which was shocking given that he had only thrown 54 strikes. It was only one game, it’s just the beginning of the season, it was really cold and we’ll chalk it up to an anomaly that Justin Verlander looked weak in a shutout performance (It also shows how great JV is and has been that our expectations are such that I would be sitting here nitpicking a five inning shutout performance. With a $180 million contract extension however, comes great expectations, expectations I have no doubt that JV will fulfill.)

The second set of the season started quite differently with Fister and Scherzer notching wins behind the kind of offensive run support fans are expecting from this lineup in the coming season, winning 8-3 and 8-4 respectively.

With Fister on the mound, Prince Fielder accounted for 7 of the 8 runs scored behind the power of 2 homeruns scoring 5 RBI, going 2 for 4 at the plate and striking out once.

Fisters’ performance was below average, giving up three runs in 5 innings tabulating an ERA of 5.40, striking out two and walking two. Smyly on the other hand came into the game in relief and shut down the Yankee bats. He pitched four perfect innings racking up five strikeouts on an efficient 50 pitch performance.

Max Scherzer gave us glimpses of both good Mad Max and bad Mad Max in his five innings. Scherzer was responsible for four runs on five hits resulting in a 7.20 ERA. He also struck-out seven while walking only two. Fan favorite Al Alburquerque, along with Spring Training shining star Darin Downs and Joaquin Benoit accounted for no more Yankee runs over the next four innings while Tiger bats added insurance runs, insuring a Tiger victory. While, Prince shined in the first game against New York, the other half of the new Bash Brothers, Miguel Cabrera took up where he left off last year, batting a perfect 4 for 4 scoring 2 runs and plating 1 RBI with a walk.

That brings us to the early season matchup all baseball fans were looking forward to. CC Sabathia versus Justin Verlander.

Sabathia held up his end of the bargain pitching 7 shutout innings and his bullpen gave him the support he needed giving up a combined zero runs over the next two innings. Verlander gave up three runs over seven innings and Phil Coke and Octavio Dotel continued to do what they do best; point to the sky and give up a combined four runs over the next two innings, resulting in a 7-0 loss.

The Tiger bats were held silent with Austin Jackson, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez being shut out at the plate combining for a 0 for 11 night with Jackson getting on base twice on walks. The lone positive on the offensive side for the Tigers was Matt Tuiasosopo going 2 for 3 with a walk and a strikeout in his first start as a Detroit Tiger.

So what overarching takeaways do we get from these series’?

None! It’s been 6 games chill out! The Tigers offense should be even better than they were last year with the addition of Hunter, the return of Martinez and the removal of Ryan Raburn and Brennan Boesch (I’m not sure if I spelled either of those correctly, and honestly who cares.)

The Tigers starting five is one to rival any in the majors and as I predicted last year I think Scherzer will be a serious contender for the American League CY Young Award.

Their biggest weakness is in the bullpen and it lies both in a lack of talent and in an inability to manage it properly. It’s my humble opinion that Leyland uses his bullpen far too often. With five starting pitchers that have the ability to perform for seven or eight strong innings it makes little sense that the Tigers bullpen arms end the season as overworked as they do, especially given the serious lack of talent and the inconsistency of that talent.

Turn 2 Tribune Top 101 Prospects: Numbers 79-70

79. J.R. Graham – Atlanta Braves

A Santa Clara guy drafted in the 4^th round in 2011, Graham dominated in High-A last year and pitched very well in 45 innings at AA. Graham features a mid 90’s heater with some serious life, coupled with a plus slider and shows strong command. Overcomes lack of size by athleticism, and needs to continue improving changeup as a third option. Potentially could make it to Atlanta this season, and projects to a #2-3 starter.

78. James Paxton – Seattle Mariners

Paxton was a 4^th round pick in 2010 and spent 2012 at AA Jackson for the second season. Works his fastball in low 90’s but can turn up the heat; best offering is curveball that sits in the high 70’s. Delivery is a mess with many moving parts that leads to inconsistencies. Command will be biggest issue moving forward. Paxton is more risky based on mechanics.

77. Lucas Giolito – Washington Nationals

Giolito missed his senior prep season with inuries before being drafted in the 1^st round by the Nationals in 2012. He had Tommy John in August, and isn’t likely to pitch in 2013. Injury history turns Giolito into a very risky play, but he has the tools to overcome. A great fastball combined with a plus curve and decent command work in Giolito’s favor.

75. Tony Cingrani – Cincinnati Reds

Cingrani was a 2011 3^rd round pick out of Rice University, and moved frequently in 2012, pitching in High-A, AA, and the big show. Cingrani features a very deceptive delivery that affords his average fastball to play up. Also has a plus changeup but a mediocre slider. Reliance on deception over stuff suggests a bullpen future, but stuff has ability to be a middle starter.

74. Yordano Ventura – Kansas City Royals

Ventura might be the smallest pitcher in the history of the world, weighing in at 5-10 and 140 pounds. Blew hitters away at High-A recording 98 k’s in 76 innings. Fastball shows at 94-98 but can touch 100’s. His curveball is a plus pitch and the changeup is average. Has tendency to overthrow and slight build takes away from projectable size. Ventura plays up as a reliever, but has also drawn comparisons to Pedro. Yes, that Pedro.

73. Jake Odorizzi – Tampa Bay Rays

Odorizzi pitched well in AA, better in AAA, and made a 7 inning cameo in the big show last season. He was a 2008 1^st rounder by the Brewers, and has a very clean delivery with three plus pitches in the fastball, changeup and curveball. Throws an average slider to round out the offerings. Doesn’t have a true knockout pitch and room for upside in offerings is limited. Sum of parts is much greater than individual tools.

72. Wily Peralta – Milwaukee Brewers

Signed by the Brewers in 2005 out of the Domincan, Peralta is on the verge of breaking out in the majors. He is a power pitcher with a fastball that sits mid 90’s offset by a strong slider with sharp break at 85-87.  Has a max effort delivery and lacks control, making pitches very inconsistent.  Many view Peralta as a better fit in the bullpen, but some believe he can fit as a #3 starter.

71. Jesse Biddle – Philadelphia Phillies

Biddle was a local boy from Germantown, PA drafted in the 1^st round in 2010 by the Phillies. The southpaw has great size and a very clean delivery. Fastball and curve are more average than plus, but can play up. Refinement of pitches will be necessary to maintain top prospect billing. Smooth delivery will allow for greater command moving forward, but look for strikeouts to dip at higher levels.

70. Justin Nicolino – Florida Marlins (Still holding on to that)

Obtained from the Jays, Nicolino was a 2^nd round pick in 2010 out of the Florida prep ranks. Shows incredible BB/9 ratio and K/BB ratio (nearly 5:1 anyone?). His mechanics and command are very advanced and aid in the play-up of his sometimes less than average fastball. Features a devastating changeup. Lack of fastball causes to pitch backwards and lacks frontline stuff.  Moving forward, shows middle rotation stuff and if uptick in pitches happens, could make a leap forward.

Turn 2 Tribune Top 101 Prospects: Numbers 89-80

After a small delay, the prospect rankings have returned. Numbers 89-80 are below, with the next batch set to roll out Monday or Tuesday. Stay tuned my friends!

89.  Clayton Blackburn – San Francisco Giants

Blackburn is another pitching prospect from Oklahoma, being drafted out of high school in the 16^th round. Blackburn lacks velocity, but makes up for it with great command. Has a plus movement on pitch and offs it with a changeup.  His breaking ball can level out at times, and he isn’t likely to add much to pitches. Blackburn is relatively low risk given his feel, and while not a “sexy” prospect, is likely to hit his ceiling as a middle of the rotation arm.

88. Delino DeShields Jr. – Houston Astros

The son of one of my favorite players in the 90’s, DeShields was a 1^st round pick in 2010, straight out of high school in Georgia. Obviously the book on DeShields starts with speed, as he quietly (Thanks B-Ham) stole 82 bases last season. DeShields has a mature approach but can be too mild-mannered at the plate. Defensively can stick at second but won’t be used elsewhere in the infield.  He will most likely be in the California League for 2013, which should provide an assist offensively.

87. Chris Owings – Arizona Diamondbacks

A first round high school pick, the shortstop smashed the ball in High A but struggled in Double A. Owings is very fluid working around the base and has a good arm, showing a future at shortstop. He does a carried away tendency at the plate, getting aggressive with some thinking it will hurt his stock in the long run. Working on his approach will be the primary ingredient to determining his future.

86. Hak-Ju Lee – Tampa Bay Rays

The former Cubs’ farmhand spent 2012 as the shortstop for Montgomery and shined defensively. Lee is very athletic and fluid with a strong arm. He struggles offensively and shows no power, but has maturity at plate which could lead to potential. Speed will be his greatest asset offensively. Lee will play in AAA in 2013, and most likely take over shortstop for the Rays in 2014.

85. Matt Davidson – Arizona Diamondbacks

Davidson was a 2009 1^st rounder as a California prep, and has taken a steady approach while climbing through the Diamondbacks system. He shows maturity at the plate, and despite an average hit tool, makes pitchers work and drives the ball with some power. Defense is being improved as he moves along and as long as the bat doesn’t minimize Davidson’s value at a power position, he should be in the big leagues before long.

84. Jake Marisnick – Florida (yes, Florida) Marlins

When talking about Jake Marisnick, the conversation begins and ends with defense. He could and possibly will play a major league centerfield now, with plus speed and a plus arm. His hitting will need work, as some project it to be a great tool, but he struggled mightily in AA. He’ll need to spend 2013 adjusting his approach after getting his feet wet in 2012.

83. Luis Sardinas – Texas Rangers

The forgotten shortstop in the Rangers organization behind Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar, Sardinas is a stud defensively. His skills rate higher than Profar’s in that respect. Sardinas is slight in nature and has been frail over his professional career. Offensively, his motions are smooth and profiles as a contact hitter with good speed. Injuries and little experience make Sardinas a risk, but there is potential for a top of the line shortstop.

82. Martin Perez – Texas Rangers

Perez was signed in 2007 as a youngster out of Venezuela and is a veteran of prospect lists essentially since then.  Prior to breaking his hand in Spring Training, Perez had the inside track at the #5 starter job in Texas after spending 2012 in Round Rock with mixed results. His fastball is a plus pitch, but his best pitch is the changeup with late action. Mechanics are inconsistent and when fastball isn’t peaking, changeup is not as effective. At just 22, Perez has time to put it all together still and will have an impact of some sort at the major league level in 2013.

81. Kolten Wong – St. Louis Cardinals

Wong hit in the 280’s in his full season debut at Double A Springfield, establishing himself as the second baseman of the future in St. Louis. Size minimizes any power output, but he makes good contact and maximizes a short swing.  He has a good arm and glove to match with decent speed. Wong is essentially the definition of a gritty gamer (backhanded compliment?), and will have a lengthy future in the majors at second base.

80. Adalberto Mondesi – Kansas City Royals

Sound familiar? The son of Raul was a 2011 signing out of Los Angeles and the Dominican Republic and spent the 2012 season in Idaho Falls as a 16 year old. Shines defensively as a shortstop with a great arm, range and hands. Currently doesn’t hit for power necessarily, but remember he is just 17. Hit tool does project to be plus, but it is early in the process and Mondesi should be considered very risky as a prospect. Could enter full season ball at the same age many end their junior year of high school.

The Turn 2 Tribune Top 101 Prospects

This is where my baseball passion lies, preparing for another season of glorious minor league baseball featuring the future stars of the game. As I unveil who I consider to be the top 101 prospects in the sport, I have a number of tidbits for you, the reader, to be mindful of.  I have seen many, but not all, of these players and thus have leaned on other sources to help me in formulating opinions. My information has come primarily from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, and Jonathan Mayo’s work for MLB.com. I have included a very brief description of each player after their listing. Please do not interpret this as a final say by any means. Especially regarding numbers 50-101, differences are miniscule and I’ll be honest, at some point personal bias just won out.

The method for releasing the rankings is as follows: I will release in sets of ten beginning with numbers 101-90 and posting the next set every couple of days or so. In all, it should take about a little less than two weeks for the full list to go live. Please stay tuned and I hope you enjoy!

Without further ado, the 2013 Turn2Tribune Top Prospects:

101. Sean Nolin – Toronto Blue Jays

Nolin is a big-bodied, left handed pitcher from Texas. A sixth round pick from San Jacinto JC in 2010, Nolin features a fastball in the low 90’s complemented by a change piece. He can also throw a two-seam with solid sinking movement. He has the ability to throw both a curve and slider, but both could use continued refinement. Nolin could start the season in AAA, but will mostly repeat at AA New Hampshire.

100. Lewis Brinson – Texas Rangers

Brinson was a first round pick of the Rangers out of high school in Florida. Brinson has a long, slender frame, allowing for swift bat speed and some decent power that could lead to around 20 home runs. Brinson is regarded as having plus tools in center field, with a strong arm and speed to cover the gaps. An area of continued work will be swing mechanics in order to produce a more consistent approach and tap into the power. Brinson is a project in some sense, but will turn just 19 in May and looks to have the potential to be a five tool center fielder.

99. Tyrell Jenkins – St. Louis Cardinals

Jenkins is a lanky right-hander from Texas. The Cardinals were able to sign him away from a football commitment to Baylor. Jenkins did deal with injuries throughout 2012, and as such, suffered through some ups and downs. His frame contributes to his mid-90’s heater, and as he gains control of his length will see more control. His fastball is complemented by a curve and a change piece, both of which are works in progress. Jenkins will spend 2013 in A ball.

98. Tyler Thornburg – Milwaukee Brewers

To say Thornburg racked up the airline miles last year would be an understatement. He pitched with Huntsville, made an appearance with the Brewers, was sent to Nashville, back to Milwaukee to pitch from the bullpen, and then made another start at the end of the year for the big league club. A right hander with unique mechanics, Thornburg needs to refine his command and some question his ability to last as a starter in the majors. He can work his fastball up to 97 and complements it with what can be a devastating curveball. Thornburg is considered as a starter by the Brewers, but also could move to the bullpen.

97. Michael Choice – Oakland Athletics

A first round pick from Texas-Arlington, Choice is working his way into an already crowded Oakland outfield.  Choice generates a lot of bat speed and has worked on minimizing movement. Strikeouts could limit his ability to hit for average and off-speed breaking pitches cause concerns as well. Choice makes up for lack of speed in center with strong instincts and reads.

96. Jorge Alfaro – Texas Rangers

Alfaro, a catcher, was signed by the Rangers in 2010 out of Columbia. Alfaro has strong tools with considerable power at a premium position, but is considered a high risk prospect due to his time table to reach the majors. Alfaro has great hitting potential and is good defensively, but mechanics and footwork need to improve. Look for Alfaro to spend 2013 in High-A.

95.  Dan Straily – Oakland Athletics

Straily has come a long way since being a 24^th round pick of Oakland back in 2009. After posting 190 k’s through 152 innings, Straily made his major league debut last season.  Straily has a strong low 90’s fastball with some late sink to it. He pairs that with a plus changeup and an average slider. Straily projects as a back of the rotation guy, and will most likely pitch in that role in 2013 for Oakland.

94. Michael Fulmer – New York Mets

Fulmer pitched the 2012 season in full season ball after being a first round pick in 2011. Fulmer’s arsenal includes a low to mid 90’s fastball coupled with a great slider. Fulmer may benefit from altering his mechanics as delivery is very high effort and results in loss of control over pitches.  The right hander will move up to High A in 2013, where he will need to find rhythm but time is on his side.

93. Zach Lee – Los Angeles Dodgers

It seems as if Zach Lee has been appearing on these lists for ages now, but he remains just 21. He seems to have lost some appeal among rankings makers, but shows good control of pitches and shows great mechanics as well. His stuff isn’t over –whelming by any means, and he can lose touch of it if he raises his effort. Lee projects more as a middle rotation starter than the top end he once was considered, but being  just 21 still has time to improve his standing.

92. Christian Bethancourt – Atlanta Braves

Bethancourt was a 2008 signing for the Braves out of his native Panama. He has stood out for his defensive skills with great arm and footwork thus far. Bat projects well, with decent pop to it, but struggled in 2012 at Double A. Like Lee, Bethancourt is just 21, and a repeating of Double A would not be the worst thing in the world. Bethancourt’s future role in the show is contingent on what he is able to produce with the bat.

91.  Jonathan Schoop – Baltimore Orioles

Schoop was signed as an international free agent from Curacao in 2008 and represented the Netherlands in the 2013 World Baseball Classic. 2012 had its ups and downs, but Schoop stood out in the Arizona Fall League, and will look to continue raising his profile. Good athlete both in the field and at the dish with line drive tools and gap power at times. Decent arm can stay on the left side, but Schoop may be better suited for a switch to the keystone.

90. Dorsyss Paulino – Cleveland Indians

Paulino was signed by the Indians out of the Dominican in 2011, and has yet to make his full season debut. However, he raked across short-season ball as a 17 year old. Obviously is considered high risk due to age and distance from the majors but has plus hitting tools and some pop that could result in around 15 homers a year. Paulino is advanced for his age, but is reliant on tools at this point.

Stay tuned for numbers 89-80 to be released next!

2012 ALCS Review

So you’ve managed to get 20 guys on base, hit two 2-run home runs in the bottom of the ninth, had the bases loaded 3 different times, Andy Pettitte’s corpse and something named Hiroki Kuroda have been as close to perfect on the mound as you can get without actually being perfect, you’ve played two games at home with your little league depth fences and a lineup that does little more than crush monster dongs, you’ve only given up 9 runs in 21 innings.

And you’re down two games to none. You’re the Yankees; you’re from New York (hashtag Bronx Accent). You’re baseball royalty and you’re down two games to none. You’re the consummate professionals, you’re the pinstripes and your reward; you’re down two games to none, Derek Jeter fractured his ankle, you wasted Kuroda’s near perfect game by providing him with zero offense, you wasted Ibanez and Ichiro’s heroic performance by getting shutout by a rookie (I see you Smyly) and now you get a face full of Verlander and Scherzer. Congratulations.

The Detroit Tigers did play well down the stretch but were gifted a playoff berth when the White Sox lost 12 of 14 at the end of the season. The Detroit Tigers did play well but were gifted a game one win when Fister got out of 3 bases loaded situations; twice because my J-Hommie, Captain Slow Jhonny Peralta made some sick grabs and got a runner at second, then got A-Rod at first the second the time (both times the runner was probably safe).

But that’s exactly what you need. You need to receive a few gifts along the way while you earn your World Series Championship.

The Detroit Tigers took the Big Apple’s game one gift and returned the favor with a fist full of Anibal Lecter, The Animal Anibal Sanchez (and other not-so-clever puns) coming at your jugular. I broke down the Tigers pitching staff earlier (here) and Sanchez had been the best pitcher on the staff for the last month of the regular season and he picked up right where’d left off. His control was on point and he made the Yankee’s power hitters look silly.

If you look at the kind of pitchers Fister and Sanchez are and you look at the type of hitters the Yankee’s fill their lineup with the results of these games should be of no surprise.

The Yankee’s load their lineup with free swinging power hitters, who take porn hacks every time they come up to the plate and Sanchez and Fister are control, ground ball pitchers. They keep everything low and force players to hit ground balls (to the tone of 11 ground balls to 2 fly balls for Sanchez) not the Yankee’s strong suite. It’s hard to hit monster dongs off, off-speed pitches and filthy breaking balls at your ankles.

Ideally, the Yankee’s would’ve like to have faced Verlander and Scherzer in New York (if facing Verlander and Scherzer can be anyone’s idea of an ideal situation) because philosophically it is easier to hit home runs off of power pitchers with a proclivity for throwing fastballs. Unfortunately, by the time the Yankee’s lineup got around to facing Verlander and Scherzer they were already down two games to none and the series had moved to Detroit.

The difference between New Yankee Stadium and Comerica Park is simple (one has fans that stay the whole game-Detroit-and the other has fans who leave after the 7th-New York…shots fired!) home runs in Yankee Stadium are mere pop flies at Comerica Park. Verlander gave up 14 fly balls and only one home run at the top of the ninth to Eduardo Nunez (the newest addition to the random group of crappy short stops who end up being Tiger Killers) and Scherzer gave up 5 fly balls (he was too busy striking guys out) for no home runs.

For those of you who got lost in the labyrinth of math and english…that’s a four game sweep. I could’ve talked about the A-Rod situation and Ibanez’s heroics more, because New York athletes don’t get enough coverage as it is, but I really don’t care about the Yankee’s, and the better team and the more entertaining team resides right here in Detroit!

Moral of the story, Anibal Sanchez is playing like an Animal, Fister is…well the joke here is a little too crude, but I’m sure you can figure it out, Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball and Scherzer’s stuff is better. Bleep me that’s awesome!

You know what? Bleep jinxes, bleep curses, bleep etiquette, bleep decorum! We’re winning this thing!

We’ve got the best hitter in baseball, we’ve got the best pitcher in baseball, we’ve got the best bat flip in baseball!

Bleep you, this is Detroit BITCH!

Okay I’m going to stop rambling now, see you in a week.

-Sunny D

Debate 2012: Mike Trout vs. Miguel Cabrera

So with the colossal failure that is the Presidential debate as the backdrop I thought I would act as a much more competent moderator than Jim Lehrer, in a debate for who deserves the MVP.

Moderator (That’s me!): Gentlemen here are the rules. You will both get 30 seconds to make an opening statement, from there I will ask each of you questions in turn and your opponent will be given an opportunity for a rebuttal if he choses, then you will both get 60 seconds for a closing statement. Mr. Trout, you won the coin toss and will get to make your opening statement first.

Mike Trout: Mr. Moderator, Turn 2 Tribune, and Angels fans, I really want to thank you for giving me the opportunity to explain myself and to prove why in this the year of Mike Trout, where anything is possible (credit Matthew Berry), I am the league’s M! V! P! *points thumbs at himself like the legendary Rob Van Dam.

Miguel Cabrera: I like to hit.

Moderator: Mr. Cabrera would you like to say anything else? You’ve got about 28 seconds remaining on your time.

Miguel Cabrera: I say I like to hit?

Moderator: Fair enough. With the opening statements completed, I would like to proceed to the question and answer portion of this debate. Mr. Cabrera you will be fielding the first question.  What would you say to the Brian Kinney’s and Keith Law’s of the world who claim that you’re Triple Crown is meaningless when considering you for the MVP?

Miguel Cabrera: I like to hit.

Moderator: Stop saying that! I know you like to hit! Everyone knows you like to hit! Sorry, sorry, that was inappropriate. I think what you mean to say is that while the individual numbers produced in winning the Triple Crown, Home Runs, RBI, and Batting Average, may have been deemed irrelevant because advanced metrics paint a much accurate picture of a players ability, the Triple Crown statistics do point towards a players capabilities and it is up to the voters to look at all the numbers and make up their own minds as to which stats they deem relevant and defining.

You should point out that you’re plate discipline is substantially better than Mike Trout’s since his K rate this year was 21.8% while your’s is a miniscule 14.1%. You should say that Trout is tied for the 20th highest strikeout rate in the AL. You should point out that you’re isolated power is 40 points greater than Mike Trout’s and that you’re ranked second in isolated power. You should also mention that you led the AL in slugging percentage and that your slugging percentage is 42 points greater than Trout’s. You should point out that you are the best hitter not just in the American League, but in all of Baseball.

Miguel Cabrera: Yes.
Moderator: *Sighs. Thank you. Mr. Trout (It feels ridiculous referring to Mike Trout as “Mr.” since he’s younger than I am.) What would you say to someone like Sean Casey who says throw out all the advanced metrics, Miguel Cabrera wins the Triple Crown, he’s the best hitter, he’s clearly the MVP?

Mike Trout: I would say it’s an archaic way to look at baseball. I would say that type of thinking is both old fashioned and wrong. I would say that my On Base Percentage is 6 points higher than Miguel Cabrera’s and that OBP is a much better indicator of a players ability at the plate than Batting Average, because it also takes into account walks and hit-by-pitches. I would also say that while Miguel Cabrera is a better power hitter than I am, my power numbers are comparable, and I am a leadoff hitter. I would like to remind everyone that my wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created + attempts to quantify a player’s total offensive value, and is both park and league-adjusted.) is 9 points higher than Cabreras that plus my 49 steals clearly make me the better offensive player. The Triple Crown choses three arbitrary offensive categories, why not chose Steals, Runs and OBP for the Triple Crown, then I would be the Triple Crown winner.

My best argument however, lies in the fact that the only arguments Miguel Cabrera can make for himself are with power numbers, because our overall offensive output is fairly even. Where I differentiate myself is on the field. I am the best defensive player in baseball, and Cabrera is one of the worst. My UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) at a much more premium defensive position is 11.7 compared to Cabrera’s whopping 0.0. And, I lead the league in WAR. If we were debating the best hitter award Miguel would probably win it. But we aren’t, we’re debating the Most Valuable Player. That means the best player at the plate, on the bases and in the field. That’s me, I’m the best player when you take all three of those things into account.

Moderator: Thank you, Mr. Cabrera would you like to rebut Mr. Trout?

Miguel Cabrera: I switched to a new defensive position and that counts for some of my poor performance on the field, and for someone as fat as me to steal 4 bases, I think is much more impressive than Mike Trout stealing 49 bases (that was a joke.) The bottom line is I accomplished something that hadn’t been done in nearly 5 decades. Stop and think about that for a second. I accomplished something that hadn’t been done in nearly FIVE decades. And while Home Runs, RBI’s, and Batting Average might be irrelevant individually, for me to lead the American League in all three categories is relevant.

Moderator: You say you like to hit? (Kidding.) Now each of you will get the opportunity to make a closing statement, since we started with Mr. Trout, Mr. Cabrera will get the opportunity to close first.

Miguel Cabrera: The award is called the Most Valuable Award. With an emphasis on Value. I was the best player all season on a team that won their division and made the playoffs. It was my performance during the last month of the season that propelled the Tigers from dwindling into irrelevance to A.L. Central Champions. And as great of a season as Mike Trout has had, he can’t say the same about his team.

Mike Trout: The MVP is a season long award. Part of the reason we have highlighted the great end the Tigers have had is because they were dwindling of their own accord, while Miguel was on the team. And if you want to put an emphasis on Value I am all for it. I’ve proven my value by posting the best WAR…Wins! Above! Replacement! in the league, Miguel can’t say that.

————————————————————–

I want to point out that I am Tigers fan, and Miguel Cabrera is one of my favorite players in the league, on the other hand I’m a massive supporter of advanced metrics and I’m a huge nerd. Ideally I think both Miguel and Mike should split the award, although I know this would cause outrage amongst baseball fans because we don’t like ties in the country, and especially in sports. We want clearly defined winners and losers, we want it spelled out in black and white, we don’t like grey areas.

But that is exactly what we have here, a grey area. If Mike Trout wins the award Keith Law and all of California will rejoice. If Miguel Cabrera wins the award Sean Casey and all of Michigan will be jubilant. The rest of the country will most likely be split no matter who wins the MVP.

I support a split MVP, but if I had to chose just one guy to win it, I think I would give it to Mike Trout, because their offensive output is fairly even and Mike Trout is a far superior defender and that is an important factor to take into consideration.

-Sunny D

Ball So Hard: AL Central Champs

Another year under Leyland and another roller coaster season is in the books. And the Tigers have made the playoffs in back to back years for the first time since Kane and Abel were turning double plays and Gene Lamont was still the third base coach (I’m saying he’s old.) This was by far the most infuriating season I’ve experienced watching the Tigers play and that falls directly on Leyland’s shoulders: He’s loyal to a fault (he keeps throwing Valverde and Benoit out there when we have better options or at the very least different options), his lineup decisions are perplexing at best (why Raburn, Worth, Santiago and Boesch get the playing time they get while Dirks is kept in the cold makes no sense to me), but he does give the best post game interviews; with answers soaked in condescension and his personality so delightfully, grumpy.

The past few seasons we’ve seen Leyland treat his everyday players like rechargeable batteries, resting them early and often and thinking that would allow his guys to store up energy for later in the season and of course that never works and he inevitably is forced to rest guys at the end of the season as well, having well wasted games earlier in the year. And on the other end of the spectrum he wears his bullpen arms out early till all that’s left is for them to fizzle out come October and November. And still the Tigers are in the playoffs, and as Division Champs; thus giving them real and substantial World Series hopes.

Now that they’re in that is all that matters. Once the regular season ends and the playoffs begin, you can throw records, and home field advantage out the door because pitching is king and the Tigers have the best three man squad in the American League. Verlander, Scherzer and Fister (Fister? I hardly knew her) could be the Ace of just about any staff in the AL and for those that want to argue that L.A. has a better staff, I’d say L.A.’s pitchers may have a better reputation, but they haven’t performed nearly as well as the Tigers.

According to www.fangraphs.com other than Greinke the Angels other four starters have a xFIP over 4 and Ervin Santana has a -0.8 WAR to go along with Weaver’s 3.0, Wilson’s 2.5 and Haren’s 1.7. Compare that to the Tigers starting 5 who all have xFIPs below 4 and Anibal Sanchez has the lowest WAR on the team with 1.4 who in the last 30 days has the best WAR on the team at 1.3, the best xFIP on the team at 2.99 and has an astonishing 8:1 K:BB/9 rate (Nerd Alert.) In layman’s terms the Tigers worst starting pitcher has been lighting fools up for the last month.

The massive variable in calculating the Tigers chances lies in the lineup. I am assuming the consistent everyday lineup during the playoffs will be some variation of:

1. Austin Jackson – OF
2. Andy Dirks – OF
3. Miguel Cabrera – 3B
4. Prince Fielder – 1B
5. Brennan Boesch – OF
6. Delmon Young – DH
7. Jhonny Peralta – SS
8. Alex Avila – C
9. Omar Infante – 2B

Assuming anything to do with the everyday lineup that Jim Leyland sets is dangerous at best. At any given moment during a pennant race Leyland could send Danny Worth, or Ramon Santiago to battle, so who is to say he won’t do the same in the playoffs.

More to the point however, I am not a fan of the most probable lineup either. Brennan Boesch is the worst everyday player on the Tigers. He hasn’t hit well for average, batting .242, he hasn’t been able to get on base with any sort of consistency with an OBP of .289 and hasn’t been able to generate any power with a slugging % of .376 with only 12 HRs.

Avisail Garcia is a promising young player, who in limited time (and admittedly with a smaller sample size) has shown more ability and skill both at the plate and out in the field. While I note the objections people might have to putting an unproven player in the lineup in the playoffs, I believe he is a major upgrade over Brennan Boesch who,  with the fear of sounding hyperbolic, I say is in the running for the worst player in baseball.

On the other hand we do have, Miguel Cabrera who chases Nap Lajoie, Ty Cobb, Jimmie Fox, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, (Ted Williams again) Mickey Mantle, Frank Robinson, Carl Yastrzemski, and Mike Trout. We’ve got the Tigers who chase 1984 and Tigers’ fans who chase Keith Law with torches and pitchforks (He doesn’t actually hate Miggy guys, and there’s nothing wrong with having the opinion that Mike Trout is the MVP).

Over the past few days as it was becoming more and more clear that the Tigers would win the AL Central over the doggedly dying White Sox who whimper towards irrelevance, more and more Tigers fans were clamoring about how clutch the Tigers are. You could make the argument that Miggy is clutch, that last year V-Mart was clutch, but the Tigers don’t get to be clutch. You aren’t clutch when the reason you needed to come from behind in the first place is because you laid down earlier and fell behind of your own accord. When the reason you were behind is because Danny Worth, and Ramon Santiago were getting more playing time than they should, because Don Kelly and Ryan Raburn were a big part of your strategy. The Tigers aren’t clutch. They played well at the end and got a little lucky because the White Sox laid down.

Now that I got that off my chest, it is an exciting time. The NFL season is in full swing, the NBA season is right around the corner and the Tigers are headed into the playoffs as Division Champs and I am willing to take my chances with this team against anyone else in the League.

As they say in the common tongue…Eat ‘em up Tigers! Eat ‘em up!

 

-Sunny D

The Max Scherzer Conundrum

Baseball’s version of Doctor Jekyll and Mister Hyde, it seems that we never know which Max we will get on any given night, good Mad Max or bad Mad Max, but that isn’t actually true. He’s the league leader in K/9 and one of only two pitchers in the American League whose K/9 is in the double digits. Scherzer posts a boastful 11.29 K/9 and a measly 3.04 BB/9 and can seemingly have a 15 strikeout night at the drop of a hat. So where does Scherzer get this reputation of being a volatile and highly inconsistent pitcher?

It all stems from 24 poorly pitched innings. In the opening months of the 2012 baseball season. Scherzer posted a 7.77 era while allowing opposing players to hit for a .346 AVG, .438 OBP and .510 SLG. A truly terrible month to say the least, but that’s all it was, one month. In May Scherzer’s ERA dropped down to 4.04 in 35.2 innings, in June it dropped to 3.86 in 30.1 innings, in July to 3.62 in 32.1 innings, August to 2.25 in 32 innings, and in his only start in the month of September Scherzer pitched 8 scoreless innings.

His overall ERA stands at an underwhelming 3.93, but if you take his first month to be an outlier (which I do) then with a bit of fancy math and magic (mostly math) his extrapolated ERA ends up being 3.46 (I know, I know, that’s a lot of fancy rejiggering of his numbers.) We can also look at what some of his numbers are as is. His xFIP is 3.25, that’s better than Verlander’s, Chris Sale’s, and King Felix’s, the three leaders in the AL CY Young race. Also 204 strikeouts, well that’s just impressive. (Plus rejiggering is a fun word to say out loud.)

Scherzer may not be the best pitcher in baseball but he certainly is the most domineering one. And for those shouting Strasburg’s or Verlander’s name at me I should point out that Verlander doesn’t strikeout opposing hitters at the rate that Scherzer does and Strasburg doesn’t face the level of hitter in the National League that Scherzer does in the American League. And Scherzer leads the league in my favorite stat, “SHEEEET!” moments. What are “SHEEEET” moments? They are the times when a pitcher strikeouts a hitter in such an embarrassing, soul crushing manner that the look on the hitters face that follows is reminiscent of a child wanting his mommy. And at that moment you can’t help but say out loud some variation of “SHEEEET!”

Fast forward to about 22 seconds and enjoy.

Scherzer is growing into his full potential in the midst of a playoff push, and it is fun as hell to watch. While I don’t think he deserves to be a challenger for the CY Young award this year, he does deserve an honorable mention and will be on the top of my list of CY Young contenders next year.

There is no conundrum any more. No perplexing situation, no head scratching moments, where we all gather around the TV with our collective heads buried in our hands wondering when he will figure it out and why he hasn’t figured it out yet, because he has. We’ve seen him figure it out, we’re watching it take place live in front of our eyes as he drops his ERA from a 7.77 to 2.25. We’re watching it as he blows his fastball past so-called power hitters then makes them whiff on his changeup. We’re watching it as his slider defies the laws of physics at times.

Mad Max, Max Scherzer, Blue Eyes, call him whatever you want to call him but sooner rather than later, we’ll all be calling him a CY Young award winner.

-Sunny D